Re: Worse than the Great Depression
It's good to see scholars like Petrov highlighting the understatement that the media and public are frequently making in equating the current crisis with the Great Depression.
In reality, there _is_ a historical parallel to the crisis now being faced - it is the long bear market of 1720-1784. That bear market essentially consisted of two major depressions interrupted by two long recoveries in the 1730s-40s and again in the 1760s.
The experience of the eighteenth century suggests a couple of things for those preparing to get through the bear market that is unfolding now:
1) The crash will not likely unfold as a straight collapse downward. Instead, it will be punctuated by numerous (sometimes sharp) periods of hopefulness, apparent recovery in quantitative economic indicators, etc.
2) The post-crash recovery is probably going to be a long, drawn-out process spanning decades. Even if the first major economic bottom is reached in or around 2012, survivors of the crash will have to undertake a prolonged and arduous rebuilding process. Society may well not really get back on its feet until the second half of the century.
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