[shijing]

I agree with that also -- with St Clair and Deagle, we have been pretty much just asked to take their word on what they say without very much to back it up as far as I could ever tell (they each have a background story that is objectively hard to assess). In the case of sources like Hawkeye, since they are an undisclosed source that by definition can't be verified, we have to pretty much just take that on faith as well. However, in the case of HPH, Clif High at least provides a general explanation of how they do what they do, makes no promises (instead making their forecasts probabilistic, and mentioning often that they do have misses), and gets data out so that people can draw their own conclusions. I also have to admit that although the particulars didn't appear to pan out (a roughly equal combination of economic and military chaos), the timeframe of the economy beginning to publicly unravel did get hit pretty close. I am therefore taking their last report (which they give away free in exchange for a Michael Tsarion book or video receipt for anyone who doesn't know that yet) seriously, while keeping in mind that it is a forecast, not a prediction.