Re: A Brief history of failed prophecies
Yes, I think you are right alyscat ...
B.t.w. the web bot is not about prophecy (as in the title). Outcome of prophecies can be changed (are conditional)
while predictions are more absolute.
The web bot makes predictions as it is a 'dumb' machine/algorithm just like your calculator or computer.
IF the algorithm is correct (depending on the quality of the designer/programmer) THEN it is nothing
more than a calculated outcome of it's input.
The input being a big bunch of statements made by people on the internet. Just like Google is handing you the links,
ranked according their algorithm. You think Google is doing a bad job ?
Well I guess not ... so here's some credibility.
Now as with every machine it goes like: garbage in garbage out
It heavily depends on the quality of the input. The assumption is that all people are more or less psychics. But we do know
the level of development is different for each person.
So, here you go. The absolute quality of the predictions will never be 100% given the 2 indicated influences already.
And that's what they don't claim either ... We are so eager to raise the accuracy.
And if I remember well they said that probably on the 7th (could be +/- a few days) something would happen which
causes the several months of release language.
Something minor can have happened today (you did not hear yet) having a huge impact on the coming months.
(like Bush signing the SPP in 2005, nobody knew but it will have big impact)
So finally the cliche again ... absence of evidence is not evidence of absence
So, back to work or whatever you do daily ... the only thing we can do is wait so we might as well do something useful.
Cheers
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