I'm interested in the principle[1] that makes ALTA possible (I prefer to use the word ALTA[2] since the WebBot[3] is only a part of the analysis system).
Firt of all, it's very hard to decide whether ALTA works or not since from a user point of view it is like a black-box[4]. Furthermore, to know the system it seems required to be a participant of the project[5].
So this post only aims to raise questions/remarks and ask for insights from the community.
1. In a way the system works because it has some hits[6]. It is clear that the ratio hit/miss (can be restricted to "major" events) must be known to have an informed opinion about its viability as a predictive tool. Personally I don't know it.
2. There are 2 main components in ALTA: the WebBot part and the human interpretation, operator feedback and tuning part. So the question is:
what is really used ? the psychic abilities of a huge volume of humans consciouness or the psychic ability of the operator to restructure the information ? or both ?
Because the implementation side of the system seems like an organic process, it hints to the fact that the involvement of the operator is central to the predictions. Therefore we may have different results with different operators.
3. There is a psychological element about the behaviour of the ALTA team that is is intriguing though explainable:
In the case of a quasi-certain near end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it why not releasing all the information about ALTA (source code) for the benefit of all ? why not making the project opensource ?
4. Bias: Cliff says in his interview at C2C that knowing how ALTA works can enable someone to manipulate the inputs of the system.
Although with enough network power or control over key information sources a large scale manipulation is thinkable, it is not clear whether ALTA is enough statistically robust to filter "noises".
Besides it could be argue that no manipulation can also benefit all the parties since the Web information volume is an open space for each party to gather relevant information that affect all humanity and beyond (see E.T.) - by analogy, a manipulation would be like polluting the water from which everybody drink.
On the contrary, manipulating the vision of possible futurs is relevant for imposing an certain agenda or prophecy (~create your own imposed realty).
Notes:
[1] the analysis is based of the assumption that the universal psychic abalities of humankind leaks relevant information about events in time through the dynamics of language structures in a vast volume. This leakage can be somehow quantified.
[2] Asymetric Language Trend Analysis
[3] The part of the system that collects and put a structure on the database. For me, it also relates to any kind of agents that collect information on the Web. Therefore it may lead to some confusions.
[4] Since it is a black-box one can argue ad infinitum about "how it can really achieve its results ?", "are they telling the truth about how it is produced?" and so on.
[5]I volunteered to work to understand and develop ALTA but the authors are now in the understandable mood of "running" - I hope they will change their view point.
Nevertheless, the complexity of the system and its ad hoc implementation may even prevent outsiders from participating:
En le Rongeant
[6]See for example the «Hits and Misses» paragraph of this article :
Reality Sandwich