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Old 09-19-2008, 11:53 PM   #6
OceanWinds
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Default Re: What actually results when economies collapse?

pretty good read, but it didn't really go into what actually happens when economies collapse to much. But it did for 3 paragraphs...

"What tends to collapse rather suddenly is the economy. Economies, too, are known to collapse, and do so with far greater regularity than civilizations. An economy does not collapse into a black hole from which no light can escape. Instead, something else happens: society begins to spontaneously reconfigure itself, establish new relationships, evolve new rules, in order to find a point of equilibrium at a lower rate of resource expenditure.

Note that the exercise carries a high human cost: without an economy, many people suddenly find themselves as helpless as newborn babes. Many of them die, sooner than they would otherwise: some would call this a "die-off." There is a part of the population that is most vulnerable: the young, the old, and the infirm; the foolish and the suicidal. There is also another part of the population that can survive indefinitely on insects and tree bark. Most people fall somewhere in between.

Once we accept the idea that don't collapse into nothing, but that economic collapses give rise to new, smaller and poorer economies, we can start reasoning about similarities and differences between a collapse that has already occurred and one that is about to occur. Unlike astrophysicists, who can confidently predict whether a given star will collapse into a neutron star or a black hole based on measurements and calculations, I have to work with general observations and anecdotal evidence. However, my thought experiment allows me to guess at the general shape of the new economy, and arrive at survival strategies that may be of use to individuals and small communities."

This pretty much summed up my view point of what happens to economies when they "collapse". All that changes is the rules of the economy. The non-tangible stuff. So prices, ownership, and rules change... so out here in the west we generally consume alot of stuff. My guess is that we wont be able to consume as much. And we will still have food, and all that stuff... maybe not as much as before. Depends on how quickly those in power make the changes necessary for the economy to advance.

This was interesting...

"The bankruptcy race is particularly interesting. Prior to its collapse, the Soviet Union was taking on foreign debt at a rate that could not be sustained. The combination of low world oil prices and a peak in Soviet oil production sealed its fate. Later, the Russian Federation, which inherited the Soviet foreign debt, was forced to default on its obligations, precipitating a financial crisis. Russia's finances later improved, primarily due to rising oil prices, along with rising oil exports. At this point, Russia is eager to wipe out the remaining Soviet debt as quickly as possible, and over the past few years the Russian rouble has done just a bit better than the U.S. dollar."

Fascinating... so debt is not a generative thing for a country to have. Wonder how the U.S. economists have never been able to figure this one out, in spite of their great educations. Hate to be sarcastic, but isnt this the first lecture everyone gets from their parents when they get their first credit card? IMO anything this obvious points to corruption.
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