[Steve_A]

Hi Everybody,

The mainstream media seems to think that Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year in the US, was a success. I'm not too sure.

There was an increase in sales of 0,5% in comparison to the same day from last year, however many have not taken into account the fact that in real terms less had been spent.

The US dollar over the last twelve months has lost around 10% of its' value against other hard currencies and so in real terms the value of the purchases was less because we must consider the value of the dollar when it is used.

The majority of the stores claimed that they were carrying less inventory during this day and the real difference will kick in and be felt when these stores try to replenish their stocks.

As the dollar is weaker against other currencies, all imported goods will cost the stores more, also manufactured goods made in the US will eventually be more expensive in dollar terms as the raw materials that do not exist in the US will also cost more, thus elevating the price of the final product.

Inflation will only be visible to the end user or consumer in around two to three months when all of this elevated costing trickles through to the stores.

I was fortunate enough to live through a period of hyper inflation here in Brazil during the beginning of the 1990s and although it was a strange notion to begin with with me I soon understood how things ran.

Prepare for a little bumpy ride. It may be strange to begin with, but things will eventually sort themselves out.

Best regards,

Steve