Anyway.
***
-When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
Arthur Conan Doyle
***
Is the United States Bankrupt ?
by Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Federal Reserve Bank of St-Louis
July/August 2006
***********
CONCLUSION
There are 77 million baby boomers now ranging from age 41 to age 59. All are hoping to collect tens of thousands of dollars in pension and healthcare
benefits from the next generation. These claimants aren’t going away. In three years, the oldest boomers will be eligible for early Social Security benefits. In six years, the boomer vanguard will start collecting Medicare. Our nation has done nothing to prepare for this onslaught of obligation. Instead, it has continued to focus on a completely meaningless fiscal metric—“the” federal deficit—censored and studiously ignored long-term fiscal analyses that are scientifically coherent, and dramatically expanded the benefit levels being explicitly or implicitly promised to the baby boomers.
Countries can and do go bankrupt. The United States, with its $65.9 trillion fiscal gap, seems clearly headed down that path. The country needs to stop shooting itself in the foot. It needs to adopt generational accounting as its standard method of budgeting and fiscal analysis, and it needs to adopt fundamental tax, Social Security, and healthcare reforms that will redeem our children’s future.
****************
Source:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publi.../Kotlikoff.pdf
By the way, Kotlikoff is a well-respected economist (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurence_J._Kotlikoff )